Ukraine’s conflict enters its third year, with President Zelensky admitting spring offensive failed. Military analysts predict changes in war course in 2024.

War will drag on but not indefinitely

The war in Ukraine is uncertain, with Putin’s strength affecting the situation. The outcome depends on political decisions in Washington and Brussels, with Putin’s hesitance emboldened by petty politics.

The EU’s membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova implicitly mean continued support for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia. A negotiated settlement is unlikely, and the West’s support for Russia remains complicated.

The course of war in 2024 will be determined elsewhere 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a return to major war in Europe, with industrial-age warfare influencing economies. Russia’s defense budget has tripled since 2021, making the war in Ukraine longer and more traumatic. Both sides may push for securing the Donbas region and consolidate in 2024.

US fighter jets could make a difference

Russia lacks a decisive capability to overrun Ukraine, but Ukraine will fight for survival. European nations are stepping up aid amid concerns the US is weakening. Ukraine will regain initiative by reconstructing units, improving recruiting, increasing ammunition production, and using US-made F16 fighter jets.