North Korea experts- by nature, a cautious group who seek to avoid sowing panic – have been left reeling by two of their own.

Analysts believe North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, is preparing for war, presenting the North and South as two independent states at war. This has sparked alarm in Washington and Seoul, but most experts disagree, stating that North Korea’s Machiavellian nature makes it unlikely to go to war.

What has led to this?

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has reportedly abandoned the goal of unification, a core ideology of the North. He has halted diplomacy channels and radio broadcasts, and plans to demolish the Reunification Arch, a monument commemorating his father’s and grandfather’s efforts. This move has raised concerns about the North’s nuclear threats.

A limited strike on the cards?

Analysts predict a possible war between North Korea and South Korea, but most disagree. South Korea is due to reopen to foreign tourists and has sold its shells to Russia. The ultimate deterrent is the advanced US and South Korean armies. A limited attack on South Korea could test its limits.

Domestic goals

Kim Jong Un’s actions in North Korea are aimed at stabilizing his regime and defining the South as the enemy. This policy is seen as an ideological adjustment for regime survival, as North Koreans are increasingly aware of their Communist country’s failings. Analysts suggest engaging with North Korea’s leader to understand his thoughts and prevent war.